Injuries to key players — an inescapable part of any NFL season — are beginning to have a significant effect on the game odds ahead of the NFL’s third week, according to TheLines, which tracks odds in U.S. regulated sports betting markets. In fact, at least 15 starters or key role players left games early on Sunday alone, and that is reverberating through Week 3’s lines.
“Injuries are a key component to any in-season betting line, but it seems like we’ve had a season’s worth of key injuries already,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “This should be a particularly interesting week with so many star players falling on Sunday. Week 3’s lines have the potential to move significantly as we learn more about the severity of each injury.”
The San Francisco 49ers, who have suffered multiple injuries to star players during their 1-1 start to the season, are a prime example. The reigning NFC champions opened the season as a consensus +900 pick to win the Super Bowl, one of three betting favorites and the top pick among NFC teams. But after injuries to stars George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, and Nick Bosa, the odds have shifted, even after cruising to a 31-13 win Sunday over the New York Jets.
As of Monday morning, the 49ers were being offered as low as +2500 by BetMGM to win the Super Bowl. And a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet, SugarHouse, and BetMGM — places the 49ers at +2000, which moves them into the longshot category. For Week 3, San Francisco sits as a consensus 4.5-point favorite in its road game against the New York Giants — who themselves have suffered injuries to Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard — after opening as a 7-point favorite.
The consensus point spreads, as of Sept. 21, for the the Week 3 slate:
- Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5); over/under 48
- Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3); over/under 46
- Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5); over/under 45
- Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5); over/under 47
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-5.5); over/under 47.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-2.5); over/under 46.5
- San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at New York Giants; over/under 41
- Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings; over/under 47
- Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns (-6.5); over/under 44.5
- Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5); over/under 44.5
- New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5); over/under 44.5
- Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5); over/under 55.5
- Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-6); over/under 54
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Denver Broncos; over/under 43.5
- Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5 ); over/under N/A
- Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5); over/under N/A
To access the updated futures lines for every NFL team, and for more analysis, visit TheLines.com/odds/super-bowl. To access Week 3 odds, visit www.thelines.com/nfl-week-3-lines-2020.
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